今天继续读Shane Parrish的《The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts》。
Hanlon’s Razor states that we should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity. In a complex world, using this model helps us avoid paranoia and ideology. By not generally assuming that bad results are the fault of a bad actor, we look for options instead of missing opportunities. This model reminds us that people do make mistakes. It demands that we ask if there is another reasonable explanation for the events that have occurred. The explanation most likely to be right is the one that contains the least amount of intent.
汉隆剃刀理论说，一件坏事，如果更容易用蠢解释，就不要轻易用坏去解释。明白这个理论，面对复杂的世界，我们能少一点妄想，少一点偏执。坏事发生时，只要我们不去下意识地觉得肯定有坏人在作祟，就能去寻找出路，而不会错失机会。这个理论在说，是人肯定会犯错。而我们需要想一想，发生的事，有没有其他合理的解释。一般而言，主观意图最少的解释，就是最有可能的解释。
Failing to prioritize stupidity over malice causes things like paranoia. Always assuming malice puts you at the center of everyone else’s world. This is an incredibly self-centered approach to life. In reality, for every act of malice, there is almost certainly far more ignorance, stupidity, and laziness.
如果总是先从坏上找原因，就容易产生被害妄想。下意识觉得别人针对你，其实是把自己当成别人世界的中心。这种想法非常以自我为中心。现实中，相比恶意的行为，无知、愚蠢、懒惰造成的恶果要多得多。
One is tempted to define man as a rational animal who always loses his temper when he is called upon to act in accordance with the dictates of reason. — Oscar Wilde
人，总觉得自己是理性的生物，但别人一让他冷静理性一点，他就马上火冒三丈。
——奥斯卡·王尔德
When we assume someone is out to get us, our very natural instinct is to take actions to defend ourselves. It’s harder to take advantage of, or even see, opportunities while in this defensive mode because our priority is saving ourselves—which tends to reduce our vision to dealing with the perceived threat instead of examining the bigger picture.
只要觉得别人是刻意针对自己，我们就会下意识地保护自己，严防死守。在自卫模式下，保护自己成了重中之重，导致我们很难抓住、甚至很难发现别的机会，视野受限只看得见面前受到的威胁，却无法审视更大的格局。
As useful as it can be, it is, however, important not to overthink this model. Hanlon’s Razor is meant to help us perceive stupidity or error, and their inadvertent consequences. It says that of all possible motives behind an action, the ones that require the least amount of energy to execute (such as ignorance or laziness) are more likely to occur than one that requires active malice.
虽然汉隆剃刀理论很好用，但也别太钻牛角尖。汉隆剃刀理论能提醒我们，犯蠢、失误会导致许多无心的后果，它想传达的是，一件事背后可能有很多种动因，一般来说，真正的动因通常是那些能量需求最少的动因（比如无知和懒惰），而非那些需要恶意并主动使坏的动因。
This isn’t to say that genuine malice doesn’t exist—of course it does. But in most interactions, stupidity is a far more common explanation than malevolence. People make mistakes. They forget things. They speak without thinking. They prioritize short-term wins over long-term wins. They act on incomplete information. They fall prey to bias and prejudice. From the outside, these actions might appear like deliberate attacks, but the reality is far more mundane.
当然了，也不是说恶意使坏就不存在，肯定是有的。但大多数时候，非蠢即坏里面，蠢要常见得多。人嘛，肯定会犯错，会健忘，会口无遮拦，会鼠目寸光，会竭泽而渔，会盲人摸象，会先入为主，会偏听偏信，会以偏概全。表现出来，真的很像是勾心斗角、尔虞我诈，但其实呢，可能就是平平无奇的无心之失。
我知道我的翻译有时候跟原文的用词和句子结构差别还蛮大的。如果你们对哪一句感兴趣，欢迎去小红书留言哦。过几天我可能会讲一讲这几句话里面有意思的单词短语和语法结构。
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