The word “IRAN” being struck by a missile
June 14th 2025
FOR THREE decades, Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has warned that Israel’s gravest external threat is Iran. And no Iranian threat is graver than its programme to acquire a nuclear bomb. Israel is a small, densely populated country within missile range of the Islamic Republic. A nuclear-armed Iran would put its very existence at risk.
30年了，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡始终坚称，以色列最大的外部威胁就是伊朗。而来自伊朗最大的威胁就是他们的核武器计划。以色列蕞尔小国，人口密集，全部处在伊朗导弹射程之内。伊朗一旦拥核，以色列可能面临灭顶之灾。
Early on Friday June 13th, Mr Netanyahu at last acted on this conviction, dispatching wave after wave of Israeli aircraft to strike Iran. They attacked nuclear installations in Natanz, 300km south of the capital Tehran, as well as officials associated with the weapons programme. And they also killed the top echelons of the Iranian armed forces, including Mohamad Bagheri, the chief of staff.
6月13日早，内塔尼亚胡终于动真格的了，派出多批次战机对伊朗进行大规模空袭。以色列袭击了伊朗首都德黑兰南方300公里的纳坦兹（Natanz），那里有伊朗的核设施，还袭击了涉及核武的伊朗高官。空袭中，伊朗武装部队总参谋长，穆罕默德·巴盖里上将等高级将领丧生。
Mr Netanyahu once had a reputation as a risk-averse leader, but this strike was audacious, even reckless. Israel is entitled to take action to stop Iran from getting a bomb. The prime minister is justified in fearing that a nuclear-armed Iran would hold dire consequences for his country. He appears to have the support of President Donald Trump, an essential ally. Friday’s assault could turn out to be a devastating blow against the regime in Tehran. But it also threatens a bewildering range of outcomes, including some that are bad for Israel and America.
内塔尼亚胡本来的形象，是一个风险规避型领导人，但这次空袭却相当大胆，甚至丧心病狂。以色列自认有权采取行动阻止伊朗拥核。内塔尼亚胡也有理由认为，伊朗拥核会对以色列带来严重后果。看起来，他也得到了关键盟友，美国总统特朗普的支持。周五的这次袭击，可能对德黑兰的伊朗领导层造成了毁灭性打击。但是，它也很可能招致难以估量的报复，对以色列和美国都造成不利。
Nobody familiar with the recent history of the Middle East could doubt that Israel is right to see Iran as a threat. The Islamic Republic has been a malign presence in the region, sponsoring terrorists, violent militias and despotic regimes, including that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly threatened to obliterate Israel. Iran backed Hamas, which launched a murderous attack on the country from Gaza on October 7th 2023.
熟悉中东近代史的人，都能理解以色列为什么会将伊朗视作威胁。伊朗在这一地区的影响很坏，支持恐怖分子、资助民兵组织、扶持专制政府，比如叙利亚的阿萨德政权。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊多次威胁要消灭以色列，伊朗还支持哈马斯，2023年10月7日哈马斯从加沙对以色列发动袭击，导致大量伤亡。
An Iranian bomb would make all of this worse. It could lead countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, to seek weapons of their own. Even without any proliferation, a nuclear-armed Iran would be perceived in the region as a constraint on the Israel Defence Forces’ freedom of manoeuvre. In Israel’s eyes, that would undermine the deterrence that keeps it safe in a dangerous neighbourhood.
伊朗拥有核武器会让局势急转直下，沙特等中东国家可能也会寻求拥核。即使核武不会扩散，地区内各国看来，伊朗拥核也会让以色列军队投鼠忌器。在以色列看来，这会削弱以色列的威慑力，在虎视眈眈的四邻之中，以色列会岌岌可危。
Israeli officials argue that they would eventually have no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear programme and that they had a brief window to carry one out. Iran is weaker than it has been for decades. Israel wrecked its air defences last year, in strikes undertaken as part of a tit-for-tat exchange. Not only is the regime unpopular, but its influence in Lebanon and Syria is much diminished. Hizbullah, the Lebanese militia that was once seen as the spearhead of any Iranian retaliation, no longer has the missiles or organisation to mount a serious reprisal.
以色列高层认为，以色列最后只能袭击伊朗核设施，而且行动的时机非常短暂。现在的伊朗，是几十年来最虚弱的伊朗。去年，以色列在双方你来我往的攻击中，摧毁了伊朗的防空系统。伊朗政府不仅失去民心，对黎巴嫩和叙利亚的影响也已大减。曾经被看作是伊朗反击尖刀的真主党，现在既没有足够的导弹，也缺乏组织能力发动大规模报复。
More importantly, Israel insists, Iran has never been closer to going nuclear. It says that, having accelerated its production of enriched uranium, Iran now has enough for 15 bombs. In a recorded address, Mr Netanyahu claimed to have evidence that Iran is weaponising its technology, saying that it may be close to a device. His officials believe that, in talks with America about a deal that would halt the nuclear programme, Iran has been creating a smokescreen behind which its scientists were in reality pressing rapidly ahead. In a post, Mr Trump endorsed that view, accusing Iran of being unwilling to make a deal. If the talks were doomed, Israel believes, then it had to act now, before it was too late.
更重要的是，以色列声称，伊朗离拥核简直就是咫尺之遥了。据以色列的消息，伊朗已经加速生产浓缩铀，库存足够制造15个原子弹。内塔尼亚胡在一段讲话中声称，以色列有证据显示，伊朗正在将其技术武器化，很快就会研制出核装置。以色列官员认为，在与美国就暂停核计划进行谈判，其实是伊朗的障眼法，伊朗科学家实际上在暗中快速推进核项目。特朗普在推文里也支持这个观点，指责伊朗不想达成协议。以色列认为，如果谈判注定失败，那现在就必须采取行动，免得为时已晚。
Perhaps with American help over the coming days, Israel may inflict fatal damage on Iran’s nuclear programme. Having killed many Iranian officials, it may have caused so much chaos in Tehran that the regime cannot mount a powerful response. After being on the receiving end of such a show of strength, the mullahs may be deterred from mounting another attempt to build a nuclear arsenal. That is the outcome which would best serve the Middle East and the world.
或许，未来几天，这美国的帮助下，以色列对伊朗的核计划会造成致命打击。以色列暗杀了许多伊朗官员，德黑兰因此已陷入巨大的混乱，使得伊朗难以进行有效反击。在经历这样的强力打击后，穆拉哈们可能会因为威慑，放弃拥核。这是最有利于中东和全世界的结果。
However, Friday’s offensive is also a huge gamble. For one thing, the urgency may not be as great as Israel suggests. In March America’s intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, said that Mr Khamenei had not reauthorised the weapons programme he suspended in 2003. Even after the attacks, Mr Trump continued to believe that there was scope for talks, calling on Iran to return to the negotiating table and strike a deal. Should Iran agree, a remote possibility, this could yet become a source of friction between America and Israel. Mr Netanyahu has never trusted Iran to abide by agreements to limit its nuclear programme.
但不管怎么样，周五的空袭都算一次豪赌。首先，形势可能远不像以色列所说的那么紧迫。三月份，美国情报主管图尔西·加巴德曾表示，哈梅内伊并未重新启动2003年暂停的核计划。即使在以色列空袭之后，特朗普仍然认为有可能进行谈判，呼吁伊朗重返谈判桌，达成协议。如果伊朗同意（虽然可能性很小），这次空袭可能会成为美以之间的间隙。内塔尼亚胡从来就不相信伊朗会遵守限制其核计划的协议。
The strike is also a gamble because of its potential regional and global consequences. Although Iran is less able to retaliate than it once was, it can still cause a lot of harm. Already, on June 13th Iran loosed over 100 drones against Israel. Iran could launch attacks on the Gulf states that are American allies or host American bases. It can still call on the Houthis, its proxies in Yemen. And it could also wage a campaign of terror against Israeli or Jewish interests around the world. If this descended into a regional war, there could be consequences for stability and—via oil prices—for the rest of the world.
这次空袭豪赌还因为它可能给中东和全世界带来严重后果。尽管伊朗的反击能力已不如从前，但仍能造成重大杀伤。6月13日，伊朗向以色利发射了100多架无人机。伊朗可能袭击美国盟友的海湾国家或美国军事基地，还能发动也门的胡塞武装。此外，它可能对全球的以色列或犹太资产发动恐怖行动。如果演变成地区战争，中东稳定将受到影响，油价必然波动，并波及全球。
Odd as it may sound, a collapse of the rotten Iranian regime, much as it is hated within the country and in the region, could also be highly destabilising. Iran is a big and complex country without a history of democracy. Nobody can say what might emerge from the chaos.
虽说听上去很奇怪，但就算伊朗人民离心离德，就算中东各国对伊朗政府恨之入骨，伊朗政府倒台也可能引起极大动荡。伊朗是一个庞大而复杂的国家，没有民主政治历史，没人能预料混乱后会出现什么样的新局面。
But the main reason the strike is a gamble is that it may not work. Twice before, in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007, Israel attacked nuclear-weapons programmes and successfully halted them. Iran’s effort is much more advanced and dispersed than those ever were. Its facility at Fordow, in Qom province, is safely hidden beneath a mountain. If, as some officials believe, that puts it beyond reach of Israeli munitions, Israel would require ground troops or American help to put it out of action. Even if physical infrastructure is destroyed, Iran has its own deposits of uranium. In the past few decades it has mastered the process of enrichment. Geology and knowhow lie beyond the reach of even American bombs. If the Iranian programme is restarted, it may return more virulent and threatening than ever.
但是，说这次空袭是豪赌的主要原因，在于它可能根本没有效果。以色列曾两次成功摧毁伊拉克（1981年）和叙利亚（2007年）的核设施。但伊朗的核计划更先进且分散。位于戈姆省福尔多的核设施隐藏在山体下，部分官员认为以色列的武器根本打不到这里。要摧毁它，以色列可能需要地面部队或美国帮助。即使核设施被摧毁，伊朗自己也有铀矿，且几十年来早已掌握浓缩技术。矿藏资源和技术都不是用美国炸弹就能炸没的。如果核计划重启，可能会更具威胁性和危险性。
The prospect is therefore that, within a few years, Israel and possibly America will be obliged to repeat the operation all over again. Each time will be harder than the last. Even in a world where the old rules are breaking down, an endless pattern of regular bombing raids on a sovereign nation would carry a heavy diplomatic and political cost. Eventually, repeated strikes could stretch America’s patience and inflame public opinion there, doing long-term harm to the alliance with America upon which Israel depends.
因此，未来几年，以色列甚至美国可能会迫不得已再次发动类似袭击。而且一次比一次难。在旧秩序正在崩溃的世界里，不断对一个主权国家进行持续轰炸，将带来沉重的外交和政治代价。三番五次的空袭可能耗尽美国耐心，激起美国民众反感，长期损害以色列赖以依靠的美以联盟。
Mr Netanyahu will argue that none of these arguments weighs more heavily than his country’s survival and that he simply cannot afford to let talks with Iran play out. It is an all-or-nothing worldview that has led Israel into wars in Gaza, Lebanon and now Iran.
内塔尼亚胡会坚持认为，以色列国家存亡高于一切，他绝不能允许伊朗核谈判取得成效。就是这种非此即彼的世界观，让以色列陷入加沙、黎巴嫩乃至如今的伊朗战争泥潭中。
The hope is that Iran’s nuclear programme will be destroyed never to return. That would be vindication for Israel’s prime minister. But if not, Israel will have to live with the paradox that Mr Netanyahu engenders. At a time when the Gulf states are offering a new vision of the Arab world built on the coexistence with Israel that comes from economic development, his eagerness to resort to conflict risks making their plans impossible. In attempting to spare the Middle East from Iranian aggression, he risks trapping it in a cycle of violent destruction and instability. In its own way, that poses an existential threat to Israel, too. ■
以色列希望伊朗的核计划被彻底摧毁，永远不再重启，如果做到了，色列总理内塔尼亚胡就功德圆满。但如果不能如愿，以色列就不得不承受由他引发的冲突。如今，海湾国家提出新阿拉伯世界愿景，愿意与以色列和平共处，发展经济，内塔尼亚胡却急于诉诸武力，这个愿景就失去了土壤。在试图保护中东免受伊朗侵犯的同时，中东地区可能也因此陷入暴力、破坏、动荡的恶性循环。这种局面同样对以色列构成生死存亡的威胁。■
精读精讲——单词短语
grave
这个词有名词和形容词两个词性：
n. [C] a place in the ground where a dead person is buried 坟墓，墓穴，埋葬处
a mass grave 万人坑
an unmarked grave 无名墓
adj. seriously bad 严重的，重大的，严峻的
a grave situation 严峻的形势
no (something) is more (adj.) than
这是最高级比较结构的一种，常用于强调“没有什么比……更……”，表示某事物在某个方面是最突出的。
No task is more difficult than this one. = This is the most difficult task.
没有任务比这一个更难。 = 这个任务是最难的。
densely populated
形容词短语，由副词和形容词构成。
populated：形容词，表示“有人居住的”。
densely：副词，修饰后面的形容词 populated，表示“密集地”。
两者结合，"densely populated" 的意思是“人口密集的”或“人口稠密的”。
conviction
n. [C/U] the fact of officially being found to be guilty of a particular crime, or the act of officially finding someone guilty 定罪，判罪
Since it was her first conviction for stealing, she was given a less severe sentence.
由于她是初次犯盗窃罪，对她的量刑不是很重。
n. [C/U] a strong opinion or belief 坚定的看法；坚定的信念；坚定的信仰
a deep/strong/lifelong conviction 深深的/坚定的/终身的信仰
n. [U] a feeling of being certain about something 深信，坚信；确信
He said he was enjoying his new job, but his voice lacked conviction.
他说他喜欢自己的新工作，但口气不怎么坚定。
dispatch
v. to send something, especially goods or a message, somewhere for a particular purpose 发送，派遣
Two loads of cloth were dispatched to the factory on 12 December.
12月12日，两车布料被送往工厂。
strike
v. to refuse to continue working because of an argument with an employer about working conditions, pay levels, or job losses 罢工
We're striking for better pay and improved safety standards.
我们举行罢工，要求加薪并提高安全标准。
v. to cause a person or place to suffer severely from the effects of something very unpleasant that happens suddenly 突然侵袭；使遭受重创
The disease has struck the whole community. 疾病席卷整个社区。
v. to hit or attack someone or something forcefully or violently 打击；攻击
Her car went out of control and struck an oncoming vehicle.
她的汽车失控，撞上了迎面开来的一辆车。
v. to reach or make an agreement 达成，制定（协议）
After several rounds of negotiations, both sides finally struck a deal.
双方经过几轮谈判后，终于达成协议。
v. to remove something officially from a document
Please strike my name from your mailing list immediately.
请立即将我的名字从邮件列表中删除。
echelon
n. [C/U] a particular level or group of people within an organization such as an army or company （军队、企业等组织的）等级，阶层，某一等级/阶层的所有人
the upper echelons of society 社会上层
audacious
adj. showing a willingness to take risks or offend people 大胆的；敢于冒险的；鲁莽的；放肆地
an audacious remark 大胆的评论
dire
adj. very serious or extreme 严重的；危急的；极端的
These people are in dire need of help. 这些人急需援助。
appear to
to seem 看起来，似乎，好像
You've got to appear (to be) calm in an interview even if you're terrified underneath.
面试时，即使内心很怕，也要显出很镇定的样子。
There appears to be some mistake.
好像出了什么错误。
desvastating
adj. causing a lot of damage or destruction 毁灭性的，破坏性极大的
The drought has had devastating consequences.
旱灾造成了极其严重的后果。
bewildering
adj. making you feel confused because there are too many things to choose from or because something is difficult to understand 令人困惑的
The college offers a bewildering range of courses.
学院开设了一大堆令人眼花缭乱的课程。
malign
adj. causing or intending to cause harm or evil 恶意的；邪恶的；有害的
malign intent 恶意企图
malign tumor 恶性肿瘤
despotic
adj. having unlimited power over other people, and often using it unfairly and cruelly 专制的
a despotic regime 专制政权
obliterate
v. to remove all signs of something, either by destroying it or by covering it so that it cannot be seen 彻底毁掉，抹去，覆盖（使不留痕迹）
The missile strike was devastating - the target was totally obliterated.
这次导弹袭击是毁灭性的——目标荡然无存。
v. to make an idea or feeling disappear completely 忘却，抹掉（想法或感情）
Maybe she gets drunk to obliterate painful memories.
也许她喝醉酒是为了忘却痛苦的往事。
proliferation
n. the fact of something increasing a lot and suddenly in number or amount 激增
The past two years have seen the proliferation of TV channels.
过去两年，电视频道数量激增。
nuclear weapons proliferation 核武器扩散
armed
adj. using or carrying weapons 使用武器的，用武力的；带武器的，武装的
armed conflict 武装冲突
本文中的nuclear-armed是一个复合形容词，用来描述某物（通常是国家、军队或设备）拥核：
a nuclear-armed state 拥核国家
nuclear-armed missles 核导弹
manoeuvre
n. [C] a movement or set of movements needing skill and care 精巧动作
Reversing round a corner is one of the manoeuvres you are required to perform in a driving test.
驾照考试中的一个规定动作是倒车转弯。
n. [C] a cleverly planned action that is intended to get an advantage 策略，花招，妙计
A series of impressive manoeuvres by the chairman had secured a lucrative contract for the company.
董事长采取了一系列十分巧妙的策略，让公司拿下了一份利润丰厚的合同。
n. [C] a planned and controlled movement or operation by the armed forces for training purposes and in war 军事调动；演习
military manoeuvres 军事演习
v. to try to make someone act in a particular way 努力使（某人）以特定方式行事
The other directors are trying to manoeuvre her into resigning.
其他董事在设法逼她辞职。
deterrence
n. [U] the action or the fact of deterring people from doing something 威慑；遏制
They believed in the principle of nuclear deterrence.
他们相信核武器的威慑力。
mount
v. to organize and begin an activity or event 组织；发动；开展；举行
to mount an attack 发动进攻
v. to fix something to a wall, in a frame, etc., so that it can be looked at or used 安放，安装；镶嵌
The surveillance camera is mounted above the main door.
摄像头安装在大门上方。
arsenal
n. [C] a building where weapons and military equipment are stored 武器库；军械库
The army planned to attack enemy arsenals.
军队计划攻击敌人的军火库。
n. [C] a collection of weapons 一大批储藏的武器
The country has agreed to reduce its nuclear arsenal.
该国同意削减核武储备。
wage
n. [C] a particular amount of money that is paid, usually every week, to an employee, especially one who does work that needs physical skills or strength, rather than a job needing a college education （尤指支付给体力劳动者并通常按周计算的）工资，报酬
a very low/high wage 非常低/高的工资
v. to fight a war or organize a series of activities in order to achieve something 发动（战争）；组织
Doesn't the president need Congress' permission to wage war on another country?
想必总统须得到国会的许可才能对他国发动战争吧？
They've been waging a long campaign to change the law.
他们为修改这一法律，已组织发起了一场持久的运动。
descend
v. to go or come down 下降；走下；降下
The path descended steeply into the valley.
这条路很陡，一直通到山谷。
descend into something: to gradually get into a bad state 恶化
halt
v. to (cause to) stop moving or doing something or happening 停止，停下
Production has halted at all of the company's factories.
公司所有的工厂都停产了。
n. an occasion when something stops moving or happening 停止，停下
the recent halt in production 最近的停产
dispersed
adj. spread across a large area 分散的
Internet technology allows us to work from anywhere and collaborate with geographically dispersed team members.
互联网技术使我们能够在任何地方工作并与身处各地的团队成员协作。
munition
n. military weapons such as guns and bombs 军火；弹药；军需品
a munitions depot 弹药库
knowhow
n. practical knowledge and ability 实际知识；技术；技能
technical know-how 专业技能
virulent
adj. full of hate and violent opposition 恶毒的，狠毒的
She is a virulent critic of US energy policy.
她是美国能源政策尖刻的批评者。
inflame
v. to cause or increase very strong feelings such as anger or excitement 激起（愤怒、激动等情感）；使愤怒；使极度激动；给……火上浇油
Reducing the number of staff is certain to inflame the already angry medical profession.
裁员一定会使本已不满的医务人员更加愤怒。
play out
to develop in a particular way 使某事发生/发展；按照预期或自然的方式进行
The plan will play out as expected.
这个计划会按预期发挥作用/发展。
all-or-nothing
走极端。表达了一种不留后路、非赢即输的态度，没有中间地带。
She either loves you or hates you - it's all or nothing with her.
她要么爱你，要么恨你，就这么极端。
vindication
n. [U] the fact of proving that what someone said or did was right or true, after other people thought it was wrong 辩白；辩护；证明正当
He claimed the vote was a vindication of his policies.
他声称这次投票证明了他的政策是正确的。
coexistence
n. [U] the fact of living or existing together at the same time or in the same place 共生, 共处, 共存
The two communities enjoyed a period of peaceful coexistence.
两个社区享受了一段和平共处时期。
resort
n. a place where many people go for rest, sport, or another stated purpose 度假胜地；旅游胜地
a ski resort 滑雪胜地
v. to do something that you do not want to do because you cannot find any other way of achieving something （别无办法的情况下）诉诸，采用，依靠
When she didn't answer the phone, I resorted to calling up to her from the street.
她不接我电话，我只好站在街上对她大喊。
aggression
n. [U] spoken or physical behaviour that is threatening or involves harm to someone or something 侵略；侵犯；攻击；挑衅
an act of aggression 攻击行为
精读精讲——语法和翻译
宾语从句
Nobody familiar with the recent history of the Middle East could doubt that Israel is right to see Iran as a threat.
熟悉中东近代史的人，都能理解以色列为什么会将伊朗视作威胁。
这句话是一个复合句，主句是"Nobody...could doubt"，宾语从句是"that Israel is right to see Iran as a threat"。
主语：Nobody familiar with the recent history of the Middle East
在主语中，familiar with the recent history of the Middle East是后置定语，修 饰nobody，限定主语的范围，意思是“熟悉中东近代史的人”。
谓语很容易找，是could doubt
宾语：that Israel is right to see Iran as a threat（that引导的宾语从句）
bofore翻译成“免得”
If the talks were doomed, Israel believe, than it had to act now, before it was too late.
以色列认为，如果谈判注定失败，那现在就必须采取行动，免得为时已晚。
"before" 是一个从属连词，表示时间关系，连接"it was too late"到"it had to act now"。
我在翻译时，改变了before的词性，转化为动词形式——这是一种很常用的翻译手法。在英语原文中，before仅表示时间顺序，但结合上下文来看，文章实际上隐含了逻辑目的，即“采取行动是为了避免来不及”。因此，在翻译为中文时，我们可以将这种逻辑含义显化出来，翻译为“免得”或“以免”，表示采取行动以规避后果。
should虚拟语气倒装
Should Iran agree...
如果伊朗同意……
"Should + 动词原形"是虚拟语气的倒装形式。它省略了条件从句中的连词"if"，并将助动"should"提前到句首，构成倒装结构。如果不倒装，则是if...should + 动词原形。
If it should snow tomorrow, I would make a snowman.
Should it snow tomorrow, I would make a snowman.
让步状语从句
Odd as it may sound, a collapse of the rotten Iranian regime, much as it is hated within the country and in the region, could also be highly destabilising.
虽说听上去很奇怪，但就算伊朗人民和中东各国对于伊朗政府都离心离德，伊朗的崩溃也可能极具破坏性。
这是一个主句带有两个状语从句的复合句。
主句：A collapse of the rotten Iranian regime could also be highly destabilising.
主语：A collapse of the rotten Iranian regime，表示“腐朽伊朗政权的崩溃”。
情态动词could + 系动词be，表示可能性。
表语：highly destabilising，形容词短语，表示“高度不稳定的”。
两个让步状语从句：
Odd as it may sound：倒装的让步状语从句，等于 though it sounds odd，译为“虽然”或“尽管”。其中"it"指代后面一整句话。
much as it is hated within the country and in the region：much as引导让步状语从句，位于句首，表示“尽管”或“虽然”。"much as" 的作用是强调一种与主句逻辑相对立的事实（即“虽然政权被憎恨，但它的崩溃仍可能不稳定”）。
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