type
Post
status
Published
状态
发布
date
Mar 24, 2026
slug
world-order-collapse-dalio-wwii-analysis
summary
达利欧分析了二战作为外部秩序崩解的典型案例，强调经济、内外部秩序的周期性变化如何导致战争。他指出，国家间的竞争主要通过经济、科技、地缘政治等方式展开，强调避免“愚蠢的战争”至关重要。文章还探讨了德国和日本在经济大萧条后的极端民族主义和军事扩张，以及美国在战争中的经济政策和反应，最后总结了强国衰落的周期性及其对历史的影响。
tags
历史
推荐
category
翻译学习
icon
password
参考标签
#达利欧 #世界秩序 #经济战争 #二战 #国际关系 #历史教训 #资源争夺 #法西斯主义 #政治经济学 #地缘政治
达利欧关于世界秩序崩溃的文章分为上下篇翻译，上篇介绍了外部秩序与混乱大周期的基本原则，指出国际关系本质上遵循“丛林法则”而非国际法。
国与国之间的较量主要通过五种方式展开——贸易/经济战、科技战、资本战、地缘政治战和军事热战。财富即权力，一个国家必须同时保证军事力量和民生福祉才能长治久安。当既有霸权衰落或新兴大国崛起时，冲突必然出现；而当双方军事实力旗鼓相当且存在不可调和的矛盾时，军事战争风险最大。
达利欧强调了几条重要原则：要实现双赢，需要在谈判时充分考虑对方和自己各自最看重什么；要有实力、尊重实力、明智地运用实力；明智地运用实力不是恃强凌弱，而是要懂得慷慨大度和真诚相待是实现双赢的强大力量。他特别指出，战争往往事与愿违且代价惨重，因此避免"愚蠢的战争"至关重要。
上篇通过分析欧洲自1500年以来的三次大周期(平均150年一次)，展示了和平繁荣如何为后来的血腥战争埋下种子。
本文是下篇。
Now that we have covered the dynamics and principles that drive the external order and disorder cycle, which were derived by looking at many cases, I’d like to briefly look at the World War II case because it provides the most recent example of the iconic dynamic of going from peace to war. Though it is only one case, it clearly shows how the confluence of the three big cycles—i.e., the overlapping and interrelated forces of the money and credit cycle, the internal order/disorder cycle, and the external order/disorder cycle—created the conditions for a catastrophic war and laid the groundwork for a new world order. While the stories from this period are very interesting in and of themselves, they are especially important because they provide lessons that help us think about what is happening now and what might be ahead. Most importantly, the United States and China are in an economic war that could conceivably evolve into a military war and comparisons between the 1930s and today provide valuable insights into what might happen and how to avoid a terrible war.
上文，我们了解了外部环境兴衰治乱周期的驱动规律和应对原则，都是我研究大量案例得出的结论。本文，我想通过第二次世界大战作为案例，对上文的内容做简要回顾，毕竟二战是人类从和平走向战争最具有标志性的最鲜活的例子。通过二战这一个案例，可以清楚地了解三大周期的共振叠加能带来什么样的巨大影响。这三大周期就是货币与信贷周期、内部兴衰治乱周期以及外部兴衰治乱周期。它们的力量交相呼应，为灾难性世界大战创造了条件，并为新的世界秩序奠定了基础。虽然二战时期的故事本身就引人入胜，但它们还有一个重要的意义，那就是为我们提供了经验和教训，帮助我们思考当下正在发生的事情以及未来可能发生什么。尤其是，中美两国正在经济战场上酣战，且完全有可能演变为军事热战。借古鉴今，通过研究1930年代的往事，可以为我们当下提供宝贵的思路，帮助我们理解接下来可能发生什么，以及如何避免中美兵戎相见。
To help convey the picture of the 1930s, I will run through the geopolitical highlights leading up to the official start of the war in Europe in 1939 and the bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941. Then I will quickly move through the war and the start of the new world order in 1945, with the US at the peak of its power.
为了更生动地还原1930年代的历史画卷，我会先梳理一下1939年欧洲战场正式开战之前，到1941年日本偷袭珍珠港事件之间的地缘政治重点事件，然后快速回顾战争进程，再讲讲1945年美国实力巅峰时期建立世界新秩序的历史。
The global depression that followed the Great Crash of 1929 led to almost all countries having big internal conflicts over wealth. This caused them to turn to more populist, autocratic, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders and policies. These moves were either to the right or to the left and occurred in varying degrees, according to the countries’ circumstances and the strengths of their democratic or autocratic traditions. In Germany, Japan, Italy, and Spain, extremely bad economic circumstances and less well-established democratic traditions led to extreme internal conflicts and a turn to populist/autocratic leaders of the right (i.e., fascists), just as at different points in time the Soviet Union and China, which also endured extreme circumstances and had no experience with democracy, turned to populist/autocratic leaders of the left (i.e., communists). The US and the UK had much stronger democratic traditions and less severe economic conditions, so they became more populist and autocratic than they had been, but not nearly as much as other nations.
1929年，股市大崩盘，全球经济大萧条，导致几乎所有国家都因资产贬值蒸发而陷入严重的内部冲突。这促使各国政治转向，推举民粹主义、专制主义、民族主义和军国主义的领导人和政策。这些政治转向的国家，有的偏右，有的偏左，程度各异，因各国国情以及民主或专制传统的强弱，而各有不同。在德国、日本、意大利和西班牙，极其糟糕的经济状况加上根基不牢的民主传统，导致内部爆发极端冲突，并转向拥护极右翼（法西斯）民粹或专制领导人，而在苏联和旧中国，在经历极端困境的历史时期，同样因为缺少民主经验，转而拥护左翼（共产主义）民粹或专制领导人。在美国和英国，由于民主传统相对较深，经济状况也没那么严峻，所以，虽然也变得更加民粹化和专制化，但远不及其他国家那么严重。
While Germany had previously been saddled with tremendous reparation debts following World War I, by 1929 it was beginning to emerge from under their yoke via the Young Plan, which provided for considerable debt relief and the departure of foreign troops from Germany by 1930. But the global depression hit Germany hard, leading to nearly 25 percent unemployment, massive bankruptcies, and extensive poverty. As is typical, there was a struggle between populists of the left (communists) and populists of the right (fascists). Adolf Hitler, the leading populist/fascist, tapped into the mood of national humiliation to build a nationalistic furor, casting the Treaty of Versailles and the countries that imposed it as the enemy. He created a 25-point nationalistic program and rallied support around it. In response to internal fighting and the desire to restore order, Hitler was appointed chancellor in January 1933, drawing large support for his Nazi Party from industrialists who feared the communists. Two months later, the Nazi Party won the most support and the most seats in the German Parliament (the Reichstag).
第一次世界大战之后，德国因为战争赔款而背上了沉重的债务，但到了1929年，由于协约国推出“扬计划”(Young Plan)【注】，德国开始摆脱这一枷锁。“扬计划”为德国提供了相当大的债务减免，外国军队也于1930年撤出德国。然而，全球经济大萧条依旧重创了德国，导致失业率接近25%，企业大量破产，贫困现象蔓延。果不其然，左翼民粹主义者（共产主义者）和右翼民粹主义者（法西斯主义者）之间展开了激烈斗争。阿道夫·希特勒，作为右翼民粹主义/法西斯主义的领军人物，利用民族屈辱情绪煽动民族主义狂热，将《凡尔赛条约》及其签署国刻画为德国的敌人。希特勒制定了民族主义25条纲领，并围绕纲领凝聚支持力量。为应对内部斗争和恢复秩序的需求，希特勒于1933年1月被任命为德国总理，他的纳粹党从惧怕共产党人的工厂主那里获得了大量支持。两个月后，纳粹党在德国议会（国会大厦）选举中赢得最高票和多数席位。
译者注：1929 年，美国银行家欧文·扬主持提出扬计划（Young Plan），是第一次世界大战后协约国针对德国赔款制定的第二个赔款方案。该计划把德国赔款总额从 1320 亿马克削减为约 1139 亿马克，并把偿付年限延长到大约 59 年，同时由协约国向德国提供贷款。这个计划取消了对德国财政经济的直接监督，希望在减轻德国负担的同时维持战后“赔款—战债”体系的运转。
Hitler refused to pay any further reparation debts, left the League of Nations, and took autocratic control of Germany in 1934. Holding the dual roles of chancellor and president, he became the country’s supreme leader. In democracies there are always some laws that allow leaders to grab special powers; Hitler seized them all. He invoked Article 48 of the Weimar Constitution to put an end to many civil rights and suppress political opposition from the communists, and forced the passage of the Enabling Act, which allowed him to pass laws without the approval of the Reichstag and the president. He was ruthless against any opposition—he censored or took control of newspapers and broadcasting companies, created a secret police force (the Gestapo) to root out and crush opposition, deprived Jews of their rights of citizenship, seized the Protestant Church’s finances, and arrested church officials who opposed him. Declaring the Aryan race superior, he prohibited non-Aryans from serving in government.
希特勒不愿再支付战争赔款，退出了国联，并于1934年掌控德国，形成独裁统治。他身兼德国总理与总统双重身份，成为国家最高领袖。在民主制度下，一直有合法途径，允许国家领导人取得各类特殊权力；希特勒将所有特殊权力悉数攫取。他援引《魏玛宪法》第48条，许多公民权利遭到限制，他镇压政治反对派共产党，并强行通过《授权法案》，使他无需国会大厦和总统的批准即可颁布法律。他对任何反对势力都毫不留情，不仅审查或接管报纸和广播公司，还成立秘密警察，也就是盖世太保，替他清除和镇压反对派，剥夺犹太人的公民权，没收新教教会的财产，逮捕反对他的教会官员。他宣扬雅利安种族是优越的主宰种族，禁止非雅利安人在政府任职。
Hitler took that same autocratic/fascist approach to rebuilding Germany’s economy, coupled with big fiscal and monetary stimulation programs. He privatized state-owned businesses and encouraged corporate investment, acting aggressively to raise Aryan Germans’ living standards. For example, he set up Volkswagen to make cars affordable and accessible, and he directed the building of the Autobahn. He financed this substantially increased government spending by forcing banks to buy government bonds. The debts that were produced were paid back by the earnings of companies and the central bank (the Reichsbank) monetizing debt. These fiscal policies by and large worked well in achieving Hitler’s goals. This is another example of how borrowing in one’s own currency and increasing one’s own debt and deficits can be highly productive if the money borrowed is put into investments that raise productivity and produce more than enough cash flow to service the debt. Even if it doesn’t cover 100 percent of the debt service, it can be very cost-effective in achieving the economic goals of the country.
凭借同样专制/法西斯的手段，希特勒重建百废待兴的德国经济，推出大规模的财政和货币刺激计划。他将国有企业私有化，鼓励企业投资，积极提高雅利安德国人的生活水平。例如，他指示成立大众汽车公司，生产平价汽车，让人人都买得起，使汽车更加普及，还主导修建了高速公路（Autobahn）。他强制银行购买政府债券，以资助大幅增加的政府支出。由此产生的债务，则通过企业收益和中央银行（德意志帝国银行）货币化来偿还。这些财政政策大体上行之有效，帮助希特勒实现了他的目标。这也再次证明，如果以本币借款、增加债务和赤字，并将借来的资金投入能够提高生产力的投资，并能够产生足够现金流来偿债，那这样的债务和赤字就能产生极高的效益。即使无法完全覆盖债务成本，在实现国家经济目标方面，也极具成本效益，极其划算。
As for the economic effects of these policies, when Hitler came to power in 1933 the unemployment rate was 25 percent. By 1938 it was nil. Per capita income increased by 22 percent in the five years after Hitler took power, and real growth averaged over 8 percent per year between 1934 and 1938. As shown in the following charts, German equities rallied nearly 70 percent in a steady trend between 1933 and 1938, until the onset of the hot war.
至于这些政策的经济效果：1933年希特勒上台时，德国失业率高达25%。到1938年，失业率已经降到了零。希特勒执政后的五年里，德国人均收入增长了22%，1934年至1938年间，实际平均经济增长率超过8%。如下图所示，从1933年到1938年，德国股市稳步上涨近70%，直到热战爆发。
左图展示的是“德国股票收益（以本币计）”。横轴是时间范围（1933年到1939年），纵轴是股票累积超额回报率。红色曲线整体由左下向右上爬升，虽然中间有几次明显回调，但趋势始终向上；图中的文字说明指出，从1933年1月到1938年，德国股市总体上涨了接近70%。
右图展示的是“德国人均收入（以2017年美元计）”。横轴同样是1933年到1939年，纵轴则是折算为2017年美元汇率的人均收入水平。可以看到，德国人均收入在这几年呈现阶段性爬升的趋势，整体稳步上升。图中的文字写明：1933到1938年间，德国人均收入总共提高了约22%。
In 1935, Hitler began to build the military, making military service compulsory for Aryans. Germany’s military spending increased much faster than any other country because the German economy needed more resources to fuel itself and it intended to use its military power to seize them.
1935年,希特勒开始扩军备战，实施雅利安人强制兵役制度。德国军费开支的增速远超其他国家，因为德国经济需要更多资源来维持运转，德国打算动用军事力量来夺取所需资源。
Like Germany, Japan was also hit exceptionally hard by the depression and became more autocratic in response. Japan was especially vulnerable to the depression because, as an island nation without adequate natural resources, it relied on exports for income to import necessities. When its exports fell by around 50 percent between 1929 and 1931, Japan was economically devastated. In 1931, Japan went broke—i.e., it was forced to draw down its gold reserves, abandon the gold standard, and float its currency, which depreciated it so greatly that Japan ran out of buying power. These terrible conditions and large wealth gaps led to fighting between the left and the right. By 1932, there was a massive upsurge in right-wing nationalism and militarism, in the hope that order and economic stability could be forcibly restored. Japan set out to get the natural resources (e.g., oil, iron, coal, and rubber) and human resources (i.e., slave labor) it needed by seizing them from other countries, invading Manchuria in 1931 and spreading out through China and Asia. As with Germany, it could be argued that Japan’s path of military aggression to get needed resources was more cost-effective than relying on classic trading and economic practices. In 1934, there was severe famine in parts of Japan, causing even more political turbulence and reinforcing the right-wing, militaristic, nationalistic, and expansionistic movement.
日本与德国一样，也因大萧条受到严重打击，并因此走向专制道路。作为一个岛国，日本的自然资源同样缺乏，难以自给自足，并且依赖出口创收，并进口生活必需品，因此特别容易受到大萧条的冲击。1929年至1931年间，日本出口下降了约50%，经济遭受重创。1931年，日本破产，被迫动用黄金储备，放弃金本位，实行浮动汇率，这导致日元大幅贬值，日本的购买力耗尽。严峻的经济状况，加上巨大的贫富差距，引发日本左翼和右翼之间的激烈斗争。到1932年，右翼民族主义和军国主义大肆抬头，他们希望通过武力恢复日本的秩序和经济稳定。日本决意从其他国家掠夺自然资源（如石油、铁、煤和橡胶）和人力资源（也就是奴隶劳工）。1931年9月18日，日本入侵中国东北，并逐步扩张入侵中国内陆和亚洲其他地区。有人认为，日本与德国通过军事侵略获取所需资源的方式，比传统贸易和经济手段更具成本效益，更划算。1934年，日本部分地区发生严重饥荒，导致政治动荡加剧，进一步强化了右翼、军国主义、民族主义和扩张主义运动。
In the years that followed, Japan’s top-down fascist command economy grew stronger, building a military-industrial complex to protect its existing bases in East Asia and northern China and support its excursions into other countries. As was also the case in Germany, while most Japanese companies remained privately held, their production was controlled by the government.
在接下来的几年里，日本实行自上而下的法西斯计划经济，经济实力不断壮大，建立起军工复合体，保护其在东亚和中国华北的占领区，并继续支持向其他国家的侵略扩张。与德国类似，虽然大多数日本企业是私有企业，但其生产活动受政府控制。
What is fascism? Consider the following three big choices that a country has to make when selecting its approach to governance:
1) bottom-up (democratic) or top-down (autocratic) decision making, 2) capitalist or communist (with socialist in the middle) ownership of production, and 3) individualistic (which treats the well-being of the individual with paramount importance) or collectivist (which treats the well-being of the whole with paramount importance). Pick the one from each category that you believe preferred approach. Fascism is autocratic, capitalist, and collectivist.
何为法西斯主义呢？选择治理方式时，一个国家需要做出以下三个重大选择：
1）决策方式是自下而上（民主）还是自上而下（专制）；2）生产资料所有制是资本主义还是共产主义（社会主义介于两者之间）；3）个人主义（个人福祉优先）还是集体主义（全民福祉优先）。你可以试着从每个类别中选择你认为最理想的方式。而法西斯主义结合了专制、资本主义和集体主义。
Fascists believe that top-down autocratic leadership, in which the government directs the production of privately held companies such that individual gratification is subordinated to national success, is the best way to make the country and its people wealthier and more powerful.
法西斯主义者认为，使国家及人民富裕、繁荣、强盛的最佳治理方式，是自上而下的专制领导，由政府指导私有企业生产，个人利益服从国家利益。
In the US, debt problems became ruinous for American banks after 1929, which curtailed their lending around the world, hurting international borrowers. At the same time, the depression created weak demand, which led to a collapse of US imports and other countries’ sales to the US. As incomes weakened, demand fell and more credit problems occurred in a self-reinforcing downward economic spiral. The US responded by turning protectionist to safeguard jobs, raising tariffs via the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, which further depressed economic conditions in other countries.
1929年之后的美国，债务问题对银行造成毁灭性打击，导致其在全球范围内的放贷大幅缩减，伤害了国际借款方。与此同时，经济大萧条导致需求疲软，美国进口和其他国家对美出口双双暴跌。随着美国人收入下降，需求进一步萎缩，信贷问题不断恶化，形成自我强化的经济下行恶性循环。美国的应对措施是转向保护主义，以求保障美国就业，1930年，美国通过《斯姆特-霍利关税法》提高关税，进一步加剧了其他国家的经济困境。
* Raising tariffs to protect domestic businesses and jobs during bad economic times is common, but it leads to reduced efficiency because production does not occur where it can be done most efficiently. Ultimately, tariffs contribute to greater global economic weakness, as tariff wars cause the countries that impose them to lose exports. Tariffs do, however, benefit the entities that are protected by them, and they can create political support for the leaders who impose them.
* 经济不景气时，为了保护本国企业和就业，提高关税是常见的做法，但这通常也会降低效率，因为生产不得不转移到效率更低的地方进行。结果，高关税会导致全球经济进一步疲软，因为关税战之下，出台关税政策的国家会失去出口市场。不过，受到关税保护的企业则会受益，他们因此会帮助增加关税的领导人赢得政治支持。
The Soviet Union had yet to recover from its devastating 1917–22 revolution and civil war, a lost war to Germany, a costly war with Poland, and a famine in 1921, and it was wracked by political purges and economic hardships throughout the 1930s. China also suffered from civil war, poverty, and a famine in 1928–30. So, when things worsened in 1930 and tariffs began, bad conditions became desperate conditions in those countries.
苏联尚未从1917-1922年的（二月、十月）革命和（苏俄）内战中恢复过来，加上对德战败、与波兰的战争也付出了高昂的代价，1921年还发生大饥荒，整个1930年代又饱受政治清洗和经济困境的折磨。1928-1930年，中国也遭受内战、贫困和饥荒的摧残。因此，1930年局势恶化、各国开始征收关税时，中国、苏联的情况更加急转直下，看不到生机和希望。
To make matters worse, there were droughts in the US and in the Soviet Union in the 1930s. * Harmful acts of nature (e.g., droughts, floods, and plagues) often cause periods of great economic hardship that when combined with other adverse conditions lead to periods of great conflict. In combination with extreme government policies, millions died in the USSR. At the same time, internal political fighting and fears of Nazi Germany led to purges of hundreds of thousands of people who were accused of spying and shot without trials.
1930年代，美国和苏联都遭遇了旱灾，这让局势更加雪上加霜。* 自然灾害（如干旱、洪涝和瘟疫）往往会造成严重的经济困境，自然灾害一旦叠加其他不利条件，就很容易引发激烈的冲突。在苏联，极端的政府政策加上自然灾害，导致数百万人死亡。与此同时，苏联国内的政治斗争和对纳粹德国的恐惧，导致数十万人被指控从事间谍活动，未经审判就被处决。
* Deflationary depressions are debt crises caused by there not being enough money in the hands of debtors to service their debts. They inevitably lead to the printing of money, debt restructurings, and government spending programs that increase the supply of, and reduce the value of, money and credit. The only question is how long it takes for government officials to make this move.
* 本质上，通缩性经济萧条就是债务危机，其根源在于债务人手中没有足够的资金来偿还债务。这种危机不可避免地导致国家印钞、债务重组以及政府推出刺激计划，增加货币和信贷的供应，货币和信贷的价值则会降低。唯一的问题是，政府官员有多少耐心、在何时采取行动。
In the case of the US, it took three and a half years from the crash in October 1929 until President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s March 1933 actions. In Roosevelt’s first 100 days in office, he created several massive government spending programs that were paid for by big tax increases and big budget deficits financed by debt that the Federal Reserve monetized. He instituted jobs programs, unemployment insurance, Social Security supports, and labor- and union friendly programs. After his 1935 tax bill, then popularly called the “Soak the Rich Tax,” the top marginal income tax rate for individuals rose to 75 percent (versus as low as 25 percent in 1930). By 1941, the top personal tax rate was 81 percent, and the top corporate tax rate was 31 percent, having started at 12 percent in 1930. Roosevelt also imposed a number of other taxes. Despite all of these taxes and the pickup in the economy that helped raise tax revenue, budget deficits increased from around 1 percent of GDP to about 4 percent of GDP because the spending increases were so large. From 1933 until the end of 1936 the stock market returned over 200 percent, and the economy grew at a blistering average real rate of about 9 percent.
从1929年10月股市崩盘，到罗斯福总统于1933年3月采取行动，美国等了三年半。罗斯福就任后的头100天，推出了多项大规模政府支出计划，资金来源是大幅度加税和提高预算赤字，而提高预算赤字则是美联储通过债务货币化来融资。罗斯福推出了促就业计划、失业保险、社会福利保障，以及亲劳工、亲工会的政策。1935年，税收法案出台，个人所得税最高边际税率升至75%（而1930年时仅为25%），被当时的民众戏称为“劫富税”。到1941年，个人所得税最高税率达到81%，企业所得税最高税率为31%，而1930年时仅为12%。罗斯福还征收了许多其他税种。尽管征收了上述各类税收，经济复苏还带来了税收增长，预算赤字占比仍从GDP的约1%增加到约4%，因为美国政府的支出增长实在太多了。从1933年到1936年底，美国股市回报率超过200%，美国经济平均实际增长率高达惊人的9%。
In 1936, the Federal Reserve tightened money and credit to fight inflation and slow an overheating economy, which caused the fragile US economy to fall back into recession and the other major economies to weaken with it, further raising tensions within and between countries.
1936年，为了平抑通胀、给过热的经济降温，美联储收紧货币和信贷政策，结果导致脆弱的美国经济再次陷入衰退，其他主要经济体也随之走弱，国内和国际紧张局势进一步加剧。
Meanwhile in Europe, the conflict in Spain between the populists of the left (the communists) and the populists of the right (the fascists) flared into the brutal Spanish Civil War. Right-wing Franco, with the support of Hitler, succeeded in purging left-wing opposition in Spain.
与此同时，在欧洲，西班牙左翼民粹主义者（共产主义者）和右翼民粹主义者（法西斯主义者）之间的冲突演变为血腥的西班牙内战。在希特勒的支持下，右翼的佛朗哥成功清除了西班牙的左翼反对派。
* During periods of severe economic distress and large wealth gaps, there are typically revolutionarily large redistributions of wealth. When done peacefully these are achieved through large tax increases on the rich and big increases in the supply of money that devalue debtors’ claims, and when done violently they are achieved by forced asset confiscations. In the US and the UK, while there were redistributions of wealth and political power, capitalism and democracy were maintained. In Germany, Japan, Italy, and Spain they were not.
* 经济衰退严重和贫富差距巨大时，通常会出现革命性的大型财富再分配。来文的和平手段，是对富人大幅加税，或者大量增加货币供应让债权人的债权贬值；来武的暴力手段，就是强制没收财产。在美国和英国，虽然也进行了财富和政治权力的再分配，但资本主义和民主制度得以保留。而在德国、日本、意大利和西班牙，这些制度则未能幸存。
* Before there is a shooting war there is usually an economic war. As is also typical, before all-out wars are declared there is about a decade of economic, technological, geopolitical, and capital wars, during which the conflicting powers intimidate each other, testing the limits of each other’s power. While 1939 and 1941 are known as the official starts of the wars in Europe and the Pacific, the conflicts really began about 10 years before that. In addition to the economically motivated conflicts within countries and the political shifts that arose from them, all of these countries faced increased external economic conflicts as they fought for greater shares of a shrinking economic pie. Because power, and not law, rules international relations, Germany and Japan became more expansionist and increasingly began to test the UK, the US, and France in the competition over resources and influence over territories.
* 在全面热战爆发之前，通常会先爆发经济战。正式开战之前，通常会有十年左右的经济战、科技战、地缘政治战和资本战，在此期间，冲突各方相互威胁升级，试探对方实力的极限。虽然普遍认为，1939年是欧洲战场冲突的开端，1941年是太平洋战场冲突的开端，但其实，冲突早在大约十年前就已经开始了。除了各国内部因经济问题而引发的冲突以及造成的政治转向之外，这些国家还面临着日益加剧的外部经济冲突，因为经济蛋糕在不断缩小的同时，它们都想争夺更大的份额。由于国际关系遵循的是弱肉强食法则，法律其实是中看不中用，于是德国和日本的扩张性越来越肆无忌惮，在争夺资源、领土、政治领地上，开始不断试探英国、美国和法国的底线。
Before going on to describe the hot war, I want to elaborate on the common tactics used when economic and capital tools are weaponized.
在深入回顾第一次世界大战之前，我想先详细说一下，把经济和资本工具用作武器时常见的策略。
They have been and still are:
一直以来，常用的策略就是下面几个：
1. Asset freezes/seizures: Preventing an enemy/rival from using or selling foreign assets they rely on. These measures can range from asset freezes for targeted groups in a country (e.g., the current US sanctions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or the initial US asset freeze against Japan in World War II) to more severe measures like unilateral debt repudiation or outright seizures of a country’s assets (e.g., some top US policy makers have been talking about not paying our debts to China).
1. 冻结/没收资产：阻止敌国/竞争对手使用或出售所需的境外资产。这种措施的力度可大可小，小可能只冻结一部分人的资产（例如美国现在对伊朗革命卫队的制裁，或二战初期美国对日本的资产冻结），大可以单方面拒绝偿还债务，或直接没收一国资产（例如，部分美国高层决策者曾提出，美国可以不偿还欠中国持有的美债）。
2. Blocking capital markets access: Preventing a country from accessing their own or another country’s capital markets (e.g., in 1887 Germany banned the purchase of Russian securities and debt to impede Russia’s military buildup; the US is now threatening to do this to China).
2. 封锁资本市场：禁止一国进入本国或他国的资本市场（例如，1887年德国禁止购买俄罗斯证券和债券，以打压俄罗斯的军事建设；美国现在威胁要对中国采取同样的措施）。
3. Embargoes/blockades: Blocking trade in goods and/or services in one’s own country and in some cases with neutral third parties for the purpose of weakening the targeted country or preventing it from getting essential items (e.g., the US’s oil embargo on Japan and cutting off its ships’ access to the Panama Canal in World War II) or blocking exports from the targeted country to other countries, thus cutting off their income (e.g., France’s blockade of the UK in the Napoleonic Wars).
3. 禁运/贸易封锁：禁止在本国进行商品、服务贸易，有时还会要求中立的第三方跟进，目的是削弱目标国家实力，或阻止其获得关键物资（例如，二战期间美国对日本实施石油禁运，并切断日本船只通过巴拿马运河的通道），或者封锁目标国家向其他国家出口商品，从而切断其外汇收入来源（例如，拿破仑战争期间法国对英国的封锁）。
If you’re interested in seeing how these tactics have been applied from 1600 until now, they are available at economicprinciples.org.
如果你想了解这些策略从1600年至今的应用历史，可以访问 economicprinciples.org 查看详细资料。
In November 1937, Hitler secretly met with his top officials to announce his plans for German expansion to gain resources and bring together the Aryan race. Then he put them into action, first annexing Austria and then seizing a part of what was then Czechoslovakia that contained oil resources. Europe and the US watched warily, not wanting to get drawn into another war so soon after the devastation of World War I.
1937年11月，希特勒秘密召集高层官员，宣布计划扩张德国领土，以获取资源并团结雅利安民族。随后他就付诸行动了，先是吞并奥地利，然后夺取捷克斯洛伐克境内蕴含丰富石油资源的地区。欧洲和美国警惕地观望着，不想在一战的惨痛之后这么快又卷入另一场战争。
As with all wars, the unknowns were far greater than the knowns because a) rival powers go into wars only when their powers are roughly comparable (otherwise it would be stupidly suicidal for the obviously weaker power) and b) there are way too many possible actions and reactions to anticipate. The only thing that is known at the outset of a hot war is that it will probably be extremely painful and possibly ruinous. As a result, smart leaders typically go into them only if the other side has pushed them into a position of either fighting or losing by backing down. For the Allies, that moment came on September 1, 1939, when Germany invaded Poland.
和所有战争一样，不确定因素从来都远远多于确定因素，因为：a) 敌对双方只有在实力相当时才会开战（否则明显较弱的一方发起战争无异于愚蠢至极的自杀行为），b) 你来我往的进攻反击行动五花八门，根本无法预测。热战开始后，唯一能够确定的是，战争会带来极大的苦难，甚至可能导致毁灭。因此，理智的领导人只有在被对方逼到不战斗就只能屈服退让的境地时，才会开战。对同盟国而言，那个时刻发生在1939年9月1日，德国入侵波兰。
Germany looked unstoppable; in short order it captured Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France, and strengthened its alliances with Japan and Italy, which had common enemies and were ideologically aligned. By seizing territory rapidly (e.g., oil-rich Romania), Hitler’s army was able to conserve its existing oil resources and gain new ones quickly. The thirst for, and acquisition of, natural resources remained a major driver of the Nazi war machine as it pushed its campaigns into Russia and the Middle East. War with the Soviets was inevitable; the only question was when. Although Germany and the USSR had signed a non-aggression pact, Germany invaded Russia in June 1941, which put Germany in an extremely costly war on two fronts.
德国来势汹汹，势不可挡；它迅速占领了丹麦、挪威、荷兰、比利时、卢森堡和法国，并加强了与日本、意大利的同盟关系，三国有共同的敌人且意识形态一致。通过快速夺取领土（例如石油储量丰富的罗马尼亚），希特勒的军队得以留存现有石油资源，并迅速获得新资源。对自然资源的渴求和掠夺，始终是纳粹战争机器的主要驱动力，推动其战争行动深入俄罗斯和中东。与苏联的战争注定不可避免；唯一不确定的是何时开战。尽管德国和苏联签署了互不侵犯条约，德国还是在1941年6月入侵俄罗斯，这使德国陷入两线作战，并付出了惨痛代价。
In the Pacific in 1937, Japan expanded its occupation of China, brutally taking control of Shanghai and Nanking, killing an estimated 200,000 Chinese civilians and disarmed combatants in the capture of Nanking alone. While the US remained isolationist, it did provide Chiang Kai-shek’s government with fighter planes and pilots to counter the Japanese, putting a toe in the war. Conflicts between the US and Japan began to flare. A Japanese soldier struck the US consul, John Moore Allison, in the face in Nanking and Japanese fighter planes sank a US gunship.
在太平洋战场，1937年，日本扩大在中国的占领区，控制了上海和南京，并进行残暴屠杀，仅在占领南京时就杀害了约20万中国平民和解除武装的战斗人员（中国记录是30万受害者）。虽然美国保持孤立主义立场，但向蒋介石政府提供了战斗机，并派飞行员（飞虎队）对抗日本，也算是参与了中国的抗日战争。美日之间的冲突开始爆发。在南京，一名日本士兵打了美国领事约翰·艾利森的面部，日本战斗机击沉了一艘美国炮艇。
In November 1940, Roosevelt won re-election after campaigning on the promise to keep the US out of the war, even though the US was already taking economic actions to protect its interests, especially in the Pacific, using economic supports to help countries it sympathized with and economic sanctions against those it did not. Earlier in 1940, Secretary of War Henry Stimson had initiated aggressive economic sanctions against Japan, culminating in the Export Control Act of 1940. In mid-1940, the US moved the US Pacific Fleet to Hawaii. In October, the US ramped up the embargo, restricting “all iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and nations of the Western Hemisphere.” The plan was to cut Japan off from resources in order to force them to retreat from most of the areas they had taken over.
1940年11月，罗斯福在美国总统竞选中承诺美国将远离战争，赢得连任。可实际上，美国已经采取经济行动保护自身利益。特别是在太平洋地区，美国向它同情的国家提供了经济支持，对它不支持的国家实施了经济制裁。1940年初，战争部长（国防部长）亨利·史汀生（Henry Stimson）对日本实施强硬经济制裁，促成1940年出台《出口管制法》（Export Control Act）。1940年年中，美国将太平洋舰队移防部署至夏威夷。10月，美国加大禁运力度，限制“除英国和西半球国家以外的所有钢铁出口”。这一计划的目的，是切断日本的资源供应，迫使其从占领的大部分地区撤退。
In March 1941, Congress passed the Lend-Lease Act, which allowed the US to lend or lease war supplies to the nations it deemed to be acting in ways that were “vital to the defense of the United States,” which included Great Britain, the Soviet Union, and China. Helping the Allies was good for the US both geopolitically and economically because it made a lot of money selling weapons, food, and other items to these soon-to-be-allied countries who were struggling to maintain production while waging war. But its motivations weren’t entirely mercenary. Great Britain was running out of money (i.e., gold), so the US allowed them to postpone payment until after the war (in some cases waiving payment entirely). Although not an outright declaration of war, Lend-Lease effectively ended the United States’ neutrality.
1941年3月，美国国会通过了《租借法案》（Lend-Lease Act），这个法案规定，如果美国认为哪个国家“对美国国防至关重要”，那美国就可以向它出借或出租战争物资，这些国家包括英国、苏联和中国。在地缘政治和经济上向同盟国施以援手，对美国是有利可图的，毕竟，这些准盟国在战争中连维持生产都很艰难，美国出售武器、食品和其他物资，能赚得盆满钵满。但美国也不完全是唯利是图。英国很快就无力支付（黄金储备消耗殆尽），于是美国允许英国等战后再付款（甚至免除部分欠款）。虽然这时美国没有正式宣战，但是《租借法案》颁布后，美国其实已经结束中立状态。
* When countries are weak, opposing countries take advantage of their weaknesses to obtain gains. France, the Netherlands, and Great Britain all had colonies in Asia. Overstretched by the fighting in Europe, they were unable to defend them against the Japanese. Starting in September 1940, Japan invaded several colonies in Southeast Asia, beginning with French Indochina, adding what it called the Southern Resource Zone to its Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. In 1941, Japan seized oil reserves in the Dutch East Indies.
* 国家一旦国力虚弱，敌对国家就会趁虚而入谋取利益。法国、荷兰和英国在亚洲都有殖民地，但由于在欧洲战场消耗过度，它们无力保卫这些殖民地抵御日本侵略。从1940年9月开始，日本入侵东南亚的几个殖民地，首先是法属中南半岛，将所谓的”大东亚共荣圈”扩张，吞并”南方资源区”。1941年，日本夺取荷属东印度群岛的石油储备。
This Japanese territorial expansion was a threat to the US’s own Pacific ambitions. In July and August 1941, Roosevelt responded by freezing all Japanese assets in the United States, closing the Panama Canal to Japanese ships, and embargoing oil and gas exports to Japan. This cut off three-fourths of Japan’s trade and 80 percent of its oil. Japan calculated that it would run out of oil in two years. This put Japan in the position of having to choose between backing down or attacking the US.
日本扩张领土，威胁到美国在太平洋扩张的野心。1941年7月和8月，罗斯福出手回击，冻结日本在美国的所有资产，关闭巴拿马运河，禁止日本船只通行，并对日本禁运石油和天然气出口。这切断了日本四分之三的贸易和80%的石油供应。日本计算，它的石油储备将在两年内耗尽，因此必须在屈服退让或攻击美国之间做出抉择，陷入两难境地。
On December 7 and 8, 1941, Japan launched coordinated attacks on US military forces at Pearl Harbor and in the Philippines. This marked the beginning of the declared war in the Pacific, which brought the US into the war in Europe too. While Japan didn’t have a widely recognized plan to win the war, the most optimistic Japanese leaders believed that the US would lose because it was fighting a war on two fronts and because its individualistic/capitalist political system was inferior to Japan’s and Germany’s authoritarian/fascist systems with their command military-industrial complexes. They also believed that they had a greater willingness to endure and die for their country, which is a big driver of which side wins. * In war one’s ability to withstand pain is even more important than one’s ability to inflict pain.
1941年12月7日和8日，日本协调多部力量，先后袭击了美国在珍珠港和菲律宾的驻军，正式揭开太平洋战场上美日对抗的序幕，并在随后几天促成美国对日、德、意宣战，从而全面卷入亚欧两大战场。虽然广泛观点认为，日本当时要想取得胜利，根本没有可行的方案，但日本领导人却极度乐观，认为美国在两条战线上作战，注定会一败涂地，而且个人主义/资本主义的政治体制，肯定打不过日本和德国的威权主义/法西斯主义体制和军工指挥系统。他们还盲目地相信，自己有更强的意志和意愿，愿意为国赴汤蹈火、牺牲捐躯，这也是决定胜负的重要因素。* 在战争中，承受痛苦的意志力有时比造成痛苦的杀伤力还重要。
Just as it is worth noting what classic economic war tactics are, it is also worth noting what classic wartime economic policies are within countries. These include government controls on just about everything as the country shifts its resources from profit making to war making—e.g., the government determines a) what items are allowed to be produced, b) what items can be bought and sold in what amounts (rationing), c) what items can be imported and exported, d) prices, wages, and profits, e) access to one’s own financial assets, and f) the ability to move one’s own money out of the country. Because wars are expensive, classically the government g) issues lots of debt that is monetized, h) relies on non-credit money such as gold for international transactions because its credit is not accepted, i) governs more autocratically, j) imposes various types of economic sanctions on enemies, including cutting off their access to capital, and k) experiences enemies imposing these sanctions on them.
经典的经济战打法值得关注，各国在战时采取的典型经济政策同样值得研究。这些政策包括，政府几乎全面管控所有事务，因为国家要将资源从逐利赚钱转向战争武备。例如，政府能决定 a) 生产哪些物资，b) 哪些物资可以买卖、买卖数量多少（也就是配给制），c) 哪些物资可以进出口，d) 物资价格、职工工资和企业利润，e) 个人能否持有金融资产，以及 f) 资金能否转移出境。由于战争必然耗资巨大，通常政府会 g) 发行大量债务并将其货币化，h) 依赖黄金等非信用货币进行国际交易，因为其信用货币已不被接受，i) 采取更专制的统治方式，j) 对敌国实施各种经济制裁，包括切断其资本来源，以及 k) 承受敌国对其实施的制裁。
When the US entered the European and Pacific wars after the attack on Pearl Harbor, classic wartime economic policies were put in place in most countries by leaders whose more autocratic approaches were broadly supported by their populations. The following table shows those economic controls in each of the major countries.
珍珠港事件后，美国全面参战，欧洲和太平洋战场的主要国家领导人纷纷实施典型的战时经济政策，采取更专制的统治手段，而这些做法也得到了各国民众的广泛支持。下表列出了各主要国家实施的经济管制措施。
The market movements during the hot war years were heavily affected by both government controls and how countries did in battles as the odds of winning and losing changed. The next table shows the controls over markets and capital flows that were put in place by the major countries during the war years.
热战期间的市场走势深受两方面因素影响：一是政府管控措施，二是战场形势变化带来的胜负概率波动。下表列出了各主要国家在战争年代对市场和资本流动实施的管制措施。
Stock market closures were common in a number of countries, leaving investors in stocks stuck without access to their capital. I should also note that money and credit were not commonly accepted between non-allied countries during the war because of a justifiable wariness about whether the currency would have any value. As noted earlier, gold—or, in some cases, silver or barter—is the coin of the realm during wars. At such times, prices and capital flows are typically controlled, so it is difficult to say what the real prices of many things are.
各国股市停市的情况十分普遍，持股投资者无法变现，资金被彻底套牢。而且，战争期间，非盟国之间通常不接受货币和信用交易，因为大家都担心对方货币会变成一堆废纸，这种担忧完全合理。如前所述，战时真正流通的“硬通货”就是黄金，有时也用白银或以物易物。在这种时期，物价和资本流动通常受到管制，因此很难说清楚商品的真实价格到底是多少。
Because losing wars typically leads to a total wipeout of wealth and power, movements of those stock markets that remained open in the war years were largely driven by how countries did in key battles as these results shifted the probability of victory or defeat for each side. For example, German equities outperformed at the beginning of World War II as Germany captured territory and established military dominance, while they underperformed after Allied powers like the US and the UK turned the tide of the war. After the 1942 Battle of Midway, Allied equities rallied almost continuously until the end of the war, while Axis equities were flat or down. As shown, both the German and Japanese stock markets were closed at the end of the war, didn’t reopen for around five years, and were virtually wiped out when they did, while US stocks were extremely strong.
战败，通常意味着彻底丧失财富和权力，所以战争期间仍在开市交易的股市走势，主要取决于各国在关键战役中的胜负成败，因为战果直接影响了胜利的天平向谁倾斜。比如二战初期，德国攻城略地、摧枯拉朽、占据上风，德国股市就表现强劲；而当美英等同盟国扭转战局后，德国股市便开始走弱。1942年中途岛海战后，同盟国股市几乎持续上涨直至战争结束，而轴心国股市则横盘或下跌。如图所示，德国和日本股市在战争结束时双双停市，近五年后才重新开市，而开市时基本上已经血本无归；相比之下，美国股市则极为强劲。
这张图显示的是二战前后（大约 1938–1950 年）四个国家股市的回报指数（以美元计）：
蓝色=美国、灰色=英国、黄色=德国、黑色=日本。纵轴是指数水平（可以理解为战前投入 1 美元，后面不同的年份市值是几美元），横轴是年份。
图中要点
- 1939–1942 年：德国股市表现很好，原因是轴心国在战争初期节节胜利，市场对德国前景乐观。
- 1942 年之后：美国和英国股市几乎一路上涨，图中标出“1942 年中途岛海战”之后，美英战局好转，投资者预期胜利、经济复苏，因此指数持续抬升。
- 日本：早期也有“战时繁荣”，但很快被严格的政府管制压住，股价长期几乎走平，图中文字说明“日本战时繁荣更快消退，股票价格受抑制走平”。
- 图上有一条横线标注“德国和日本市场关闭”，说明战时后期证券市场被关闭、指数（黄色线和灰色线）无数据显示。
- 战后德国和日本市场重新开放时，“指数大幅下跌”，说明一旦恢复交易，价格立刻大幅向下调整，把战时被管制、被人为维持的价格一次性修正。
- 到 1950 年：美国和英国指数都显著高于 1，特别是美国线冲到接近 3，说明如果战前持有美国股票并一直持有到 1950 年，实际回报非常可观；而德国、日本因为战败和资产重组，长期回报远落后于美英。
Protecting one’s wealth in times of war is difficult, as normal economic activities are curtailed, traditionally safe investments are not safe, capital mobility is limited, and high taxes are imposed when people and countries are fighting for their survival. Protecting the wealth of those who have it is not a priority relative to the need to redistribute wealth to get it to where it is needed most. As for investing, sell out of all debt and buy gold because wars are financed by borrowing and printing money, which devalues debt and money, and because there is a justifiable reluctance to accept credit.
在战争年代，保护自己的财富极其困难：正常经济活动受到严重限制，传统的避险资产不再安全，资金流动受阻，而且国家和民族在为生存而战时，还要面临沉重的税负。此时此刻，保护富人的财富根本不是优先事项，当务之急是把财富重新分配到最需要的地方去。至于投资的话，则是清仓所有债务资产、买入黄金，因为战争要靠举债和印钞来筹资，这会让债务和货币贬值；而且人们有充分理由不接受信用支付。
Every world power has its time in the sun, thanks to the uniqueness of their circumstances and the nature of their character and culture (e.g., they have the essential elements of a strong work ethic, smarts, discipline, education, etc.), but they all eventually decline. Some do so more gracefully than others, with less trauma, but they nevertheless decline. Traumatic declines can lead to some of the worst periods in history, when big fights over wealth and power prove extremely costly both economically and in human lives.
得益于强国独特的环境条件以及自身的性格特质和文化底蕴(比如强烈的职业道德、聪明才智、严明纪律、良好教育等核心要素)，每个强国都有其辉煌强盛的时刻，但它们最终都会走向衰落。有些国家衰落得比较体面，创伤代价较小，但衰落终究无法避免。有些强国衰落则会导致生灵涂炭，使历史进入至暗时期，对财富与权力的激烈争夺，会付出经济和生命上极其惨重的代价。
Still, the cycle needn’t transpire this way if countries in their rich and powerful stages stay productive, earn more than they spend, make the system work well for most of their populations, and figure out ways of creating and sustaining win-win relationships with their most significant rivals. A number of empires and dynasties have sustained themselves for hundreds of years, and the United States, at 245 years old, has proven itself to be one of the longest-lasting.
然而，如果各国在富强阶段能够保持生产力，量入为出，让体制为大多数国民服务，并与主要竞争对手建立和维持互利共赢的关系，历史大周期未必要以这种方式演进。历史上有许多帝国和王朝延续了数百年之久，而美国建国245年，也证明了自己是国祚最长久的国家之一。
Loading...
