Author: Joseph Trevithick
Date: 2025-09-02
Original: https://www.twz.com/nuclear/chinas-new-df-61-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-breaks-cover
What looks to be a new Chinese road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) dubbed the DF-61, or at least a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) for it, has emerged amid last-minute preparations for a massive military parade in Beijing. There have been reports for some time now that China has been developing next-generation ICBMs, including a successor to its road-mobile DF-41 ICBM, as part of a larger buildup of its nuclear deterrent arsenal.
一辆疑似中国新型陆基机动洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）东风-61，或其运输起竖发射车（TEL），在大阅兵的最后准备阶段出现在北京街头。长期以来，一直有报道称中国正在开发新一代洲际弹道导弹，包括其陆基机动型东风-41洲际弹道导弹的升级换代型号，以扩大核威慑武力库。
Imagery showing 16-wheeled TELs loaded at least with canisters marked DF-61 (whether or not there is an actual missile inside is unknown) is now beginning to circulate online. It is currently early morning on September 3 in Beijing. Preparations for the imminent parade, which will mark the 80th anniversary of the country’s victory over Japan in World War II, have been going on for months now, and various new capabilities have already surfaced.
如今，网上已经流传一些印有“DF-61”的16轮TEL（运输、竖直、发射车）的照片，发射车装载着导弹发射筒（目前尚不清楚发射筒里是否真装有导弹）。北京时间9月3日清晨，北京正在为即将举行的阅兵做最后准备，庆祝中国在第二次（反法西斯）世界大战中战胜日本80周年。为此次大阅兵，准备工作已经进行数月，一些新型武器装备也已陆续亮相。
No hard details have yet to emerge about the DF-61, and it is unknown at this time whether or not it is said to be in service. A point of reference, the DF-41 was first shown to the public at another major parade in 2019, but its development is understood to have started before 2000, and it had reportedly begun entering operational service in 2017. The DF-41 is some 20 meters long, has an estimated range of between 12,000 and 15,000 kilometers, and can be loaded with up to 10 multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads, according to the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.
目前还没有东风-61的确切参数，现在也不清楚它是否已经服役（译者按：现在确认已经服役）。作为参考，东风-41首次公开亮相是在2019年的国庆大阅兵上，但据了解研发早在2000年之前就已开始，据报道于2017年开始服役。根据战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）智库导弹防御项目的资料，东风-41长约20米，估计射程在12,000至15,000公里之间，可搭载多达十枚分导式弹头（MIRV）。
A story last year from The Washington Times said that references to a DF-41 successor, referred to at that time variously as the DF-45 and DF-51, have appeared on the Chinese web since at least 2020. That piece came after U.S. Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, head of U.S. Strategic Command, reportedly told members of Congress that China was developing a “new generation of mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles” at a closed-door hearing.
《华盛顿时报》去年报道，自2020年起，中国互联网上就出现了关于东风-41升级换代型号的讨论，当时称为东风-45或东风-51。报道发表之前，美国空军战略司令部司令安东尼·科顿（Anthony Cotton）将军据报在一次闭门听证会上向国会议员透露，中国正在研发“新一代陆基机动洲际弹道导弹”。
“Sometimes called the DF-45 or DF-51, it is clearly intended to outperform the DF-41,” Rick Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center think tank, told The Washington Times at that time. “Such an ICBM would not be much larger than a DF-41 to preclude a road-mobile version.”
国际评估与战略中心智库的高级研究员里克·费舍尔（Rick Fisher）对《华盛顿时报》表示，“新型导弹被称为东风-45或东风-51，显然是为了取代东风-41而设计的。新型洲际弹道导弹应该比东风-41大不了太多，否则会影响其陆基机动性。”
Fisher also told The Washington Times that China had the capacity to build larger TELs if the DF-45/DF-51 were to be significantly larger than the DF-41. However, as it stands now, the DF-61 looks to be broadly in line size-wise with the DF-41, with both using 16-wheeled TELs.
费舍尔还告诉《华盛顿时报》，如果东风-45或者东风-51比东风-41大很多，中国也有能力建造更大的发射车。不过，目前来看，东风-61在尺寸上与东风-41基本相当，两者都使用16轮发射车。
“The DF-45 would have a takeoff weight of 112 tons and a payload weighing 3.6 tons and be armed with seven 650-kiloton warheads. The new missile’s estimated range would be 7,456 to 9,320 miles,” The Washington Times also reported, though the sourcing behind these details is unclear.
《华盛顿时报》报道还称：“东风-45发射重量将达112吨，有效载荷3.6吨，装备七枚当量为650千吨的弹头。这款新型导弹的预计射程约为12,000-15,000公里。”不过，这些数据的来源尚不明确。
"There are other reports of a DF-51. For example, there is a passing reference to it in a 2006 article in a Hong Kong publication. One report indicates that: 1) its launch-weight is 130-tons, 2) it can carry three five-megaton MIRVs , and 3) it can carry China's Fractional Orbital Bombardment System," according to a separate 2024 report from the National Institute for Public Policy (NIPP) think tank. "Another report says it has a range of 15,000-km and can carry 14 warheads. The U.K.'s Telegraph.com says 10 warheads. Both ten and 14 relatively light warheads are reasonable numbers for a missile more capable than the DF-41."
关于东风-51还有其他报道。例如，2006年，香港出版的一本书里，就有文章简短提到了东风-51。根据国家公共政策研究所（NIPP）智库2024年的一份报告，“有报道显示：1）其发射重量为130吨，2）可携带三枚当量为500万吨的分导式弹头，3）可搭载中国的部分轨道轰炸系统（FOBS）。”另一份报道称其射程为15,000公里，可携带14枚弹头。英国《每日电讯报》官网（Telegraph.com）则称可携带10枚弹头。对于比东风-41更先进的导弹而言，10枚或14枚相对轻量级的弹头都是合理的数量。
NIPP's report also noted that "it is unclear whether the DF-45/DF-51 is one or two systems" and that, "if it is two systems, one might be a replacement for the DF-41 and the other for the DF-5." The newly emerged DF-61 could still be just one of several all-new ICBM designs China has been working on.
NIPP的报告还指出，“目前尚不清楚东风-45或东风-51是一种还是两种导弹”，并且“如果是两种导弹，其中一个可能是东风-41的升级换代型号，另一个则可能是取代东风-5的型号。”最近亮相的东风-61可能只是中国正在研发的多款全新洲际弹道导弹型号中的一种。
What is well known is that China has been investing heavily in recent years in expanding its ICBM arsenal, including the construction of vast new fields of silos, as a part of a larger nuclear build-up. What looks to be a new silo-specific variant of the existing DF-31 ICBM, the DF-31BJ, is also included in today’s parade.
众所周知，中国近年来大力投入扩充洲际弹道导弹阵容，包括建造大批新的导弹发射井，这只是更大型核力量建设的一部分。在今天的阅兵中，还展示了一款疑似现役东风-31洲际弹道导弹的井基型号——东风-31BJ（中文对应东风-31乙井）。
“The PLARF [People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force] is advancing its long-term modernization plans to enhance its ‘strategic deterrence’ capabilities,” the Pentagon had noted in the unclassified version of an annual report on Chinese military developments that it sent to Congress in December 2024. “The PRC is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production.”
五角大楼在2024年12月向国会提交的中国军事发展年度报告解密版中指出：“解放军火箭军（PLARF）正在推进其长期现代化计划，以增强其‘战略威慑’能力。中国正在开发新型洲际弹道导弹（ICBMs），将显著提升其核投送力量，并需要增加核弹头的生产。”
“Over the next decade, the PRC [People’s Republic of China] probably will continue to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces rapidly. The PLA seeks a larger and more diverse nuclear force, comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to ICBMs with multi-megaton yields to provide it multiple options on the escalation ladder,” that report added. “In 2023, Beijing continued its rapid nuclear expansion. DoD estimates the PRC has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads in its stockpile as of mid-2024 and will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels. The PRC will continue growing its force through at least 2035.”
“未来十年，中国很可能会继续快速扩充其核力量，并实现现代化、多样化。解放军正在努力建设一支更大的、更多样化的核力量，从低当量精确打击导弹到携带百万吨级当量的洲际弹道导弹，以便在冲突升级程度梯级上，拥有灵活多样的选择，”报告还指出。“2023年，北京继续快速扩充核武库。美国国防部估计，截至2024年中期，中国的核弹头库存已超过600枚，到2030年将拥有超过1,000枚可实战核弹头，其中大部分将保持较高的战备状态。中国扩充其核力量将至少持续到2035年。”
The DF-61 is just one of a number of major unveilings still expected to come at the parade today. As already noted, many new capabilities, including a number of new air combat drone designs and previously unseen high-speed strike missiles, have already broken cover during the months-long preparations for today’s event.
If nothing else, we now know the official nomenclature of at least one new ICBM design China has been working on.
至少，中国正在研发的新型洲际弹道导弹中，我们已经知道一款的官方命名了。
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